Mortgage rates move daily, and whether they've dropped depends on which day you're comparing to

Mortgage rates change almost every business day based on bond markets, inflation data, and Federal Reserve decisions. A rate that was 7.2% last week might be 7.0% today—that's a drop. But a rate that was 6.8% three months ago and is now 7.0% is actually higher, even if it dropped from yesterday's 7.1%. The answer to "have rates dropped" depends entirely on your timeframe.

The most useful comparison is usually the rate from one week ago or one month ago, because that's the window where you're deciding whether to lock in a rate or wait. Comparing to a year ago tells you something about the broader trend, but it won't help you decide what to do this week.

Key Takeaways

  • Mortgage rates move daily based on bond markets and Federal Reserve policy, so you need to specify which date you're comparing to in order to know if rates have dropped.
  • The Mortgage Bankers Association publishes weekly average rates on Wednesdays, and Freddie Mac publishes them on Thursdays—these are the most widely cited benchmarks.
  • Your actual rate depends on your credit score, down payment, loan type, and lender, so a national average drop does not may provide your personal rate dropped by the same amount.
  • If you're deciding whether to lock in a rate, comparing this week's average to last week's average is more useful than comparing to a year ago.

Where to find the actual rates that changed

The Mortgage Bankers Association publishes a weekly mortgage rate survey every Wednesday afternoon, covering 30-year fixed, 15-year fixed, and adjustable-rate mortgages. This is the data most news outlets cite when they say "rates dropped" or "rates rose." You can see the current week's rates and the previous week's rates on their website, which makes it easy to spot the actual change.

Freddie Mac publishes its Primary Mortgage Market Survey every Thursday morning, covering similar loan types. Freddie Mac's data goes back decades, so if you want to see whether rates are higher or lower than they were six months ago or a year ago, their historical tables are the place to look.

Both surveys measure rates for borrowers with good credit and a 20% down payment, so the actual rate you receive from a lender will likely be different. A national average drop of 0.25% does not mean your personal rate dropped by 0.25%—it depends on your credit score, the size of your down payment, your debt-to-income ratio, and which lender you're working with.

Why rates dropped (or didn't)

Mortgage rates follow the 10-year Treasury bond yield more closely than they follow the Federal Reserve's interest rate. When bond yields fall, mortgage rates usually fall. When bond yields rise, mortgage rates usually rise. The Treasury yield moves based on what investors think inflation will be, what the Fed will do next, and broader economic conditions.

A drop in mortgage rates typically happens when investors expect slower economic growth, lower inflation, or Fed rate cuts in the future. A rise happens when inflation fears increase or the economy looks stronger than expected. This is why mortgage rates can drop even when the Fed is holding its rate steady, or rise even after the Fed cuts its rate.

If you see a headline saying rates dropped, the article should explain what caused the drop—a jobs report that came in weaker than expected, inflation data that fell, or Fed comments about future policy. If it doesn't explain the cause, you're reading a headline without substance.

How to use rate drops to make a decision

If rates have dropped since you started shopping, that's useful information, but it's not a signal to wait longer. Rates could drop further, or they could rise tomorrow. The real question is whether the current rate is acceptable to you and whether you're ready to buy.

If you've locked in a rate with a lender and rates drop afterward, most lenders offer a "rate lock extension" or "float down" option that lets you lock in the new lower rate before closing—usually for a fee of a few hundred dollars. Read your Loan Estimate to see whether your lender offers this and what it costs. Some lenders build it in; others charge extra.

If you haven't locked in yet and rates drop, that's the time to lock. Locking means the lender guarantees that rate for a set number of days (usually 30 to 60). Once you lock, your rate won't change even if rates rise, but you also can't benefit if they drop further—unless you pay for a float down option.

The difference between national averages and your actual rate

When the news says "30-year mortgage rates dropped to 6.8%," that's an average for borrowers with a 20% down payment and a credit score in the 700s. If your credit score is 650, your rate will be higher. If your down payment is 10%, your rate will be higher. If you're getting a jumbo loan (over the conforming limit, which varies by county), your rate will likely be higher.

The only way to know your actual rate is to get a Loan Estimate from a lender. This is a standardized form that shows your interest rate, your monthly payment, closing costs, and the terms of the loan. You can get one in minutes by providing basic information about your income, credit, and the property. Getting estimates from three lenders lets you see how much rates and fees vary.

Frequently Asked Questions

If rates dropped this week, should I lock in now or wait to see if they drop more?

Locking in protects you if rates rise, but you lose the chance to benefit if they drop further. The decision depends on your timeline and risk tolerance, not on whether rates dropped recently. If you're closing in 30 days and you're comfortable with the current rate, locking makes sense. If you're not ready to close for three months, waiting costs you nothing.

Can I get a better rate than the national average?

Yes, if your credit score is higher, your down payment is larger, or you're shopping with a lender that has lower overhead. The national average is a benchmark, not a ceiling or floor. Get Loan Estimates from at least three lenders to see the actual range available to you.

What does "float down" mean?

Float down is an option that lets you lock in a lower rate if rates drop after you've already locked. It usually costs a few hundred dollars and is only available during your lock period. Ask your lender whether they offer it and what the fee is before you lock.

Do mortgage rates drop on weekends?

Mortgage rates are quoted on business days only, because the bond market is closed on weekends. Rates quoted on Friday are the same rates quoted on Monday unless something major happened over the weekend that affects bond yields.

Where can I see mortgage rates from a year ago to compare?

Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey has historical data going back to 1971. You can download their tables and see exactly what rates were on any Thursday in the past. This is useful for understanding the long-term trend, but less useful for deciding what to do this week.